DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/12 10:52
Wheat, Corn Lower at Midday
Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat is
flat to 3 cents lower.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 240 points. The dollar index
is 25 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly
higher with crude up $0.80. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading.
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $4.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower in quiet pre-report trade as we consolidate
further in the lower end of the range. The weekly ethanol report showed
production down 13,000 barrels per day, and stocks down 596,000 barrels taking
stocks below 20 million barrels. Basis has remained fairly flat in recent days,
with pressure likely at locations with a strong crop coming soon. On the WASDE
report, trade is looking for yields to edge above 180 BPA with carryouts
remaining near 2.8 billion bushels. On the September contract, trade continues
to have resistance at the 20-day at $3.18, with chart support at the lower
Bollinger Band at $3.03.
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher ahead of the report with exports and
conditions likely to continue their tug of war with further sales of 258,000
metric tons and 120,000 metric tons sold to unknown. Meal is narrowly mixed,
and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. The real remains in the tighter recent range
vs. the dollar. Weather looks to continue to be good for most into podfill. The
WASDE report is expected to show yields moving to above 51 BPA with carryout
likely to edge higher. The September chart now has resistance at the 20-day at
8.85 which we are pulling back from, and support the lower Bollinger band at
Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower at midday with trade remaining choppy
while it holds the lower end of the range and awaits further direction from the
report and row crops. The ruble is holding vs. the dollar as well with more
Middle East tenders being scheduled into fall along with weaker prices going to
exporters on the ones that filled today. Kansas City is at a 77-cent discount
to Chicago with spreads now a dime off the recent highs, while Minneapolis is
back to a 1 cent premium. The WASDE report will focus more on world numbers
with increases expected for Russian production tomorrow. Kansas City September
chart support is the fresh low at $4.09 3/4, with the 20-day back above the
market as nearby resistance at $4.33 3/4.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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